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Discounting and relative prices in assessing future environmental damages
By Thomas Sterner
Iddri
Paris 12th of December 2006
La prise en compte du long terme est une des caractéristiques du développement durable. Elle est au coeur des travaux du rapport Stern sur les changements climatiques récemment publié et sera centrale dans le prochain rapport du GIEC en préparation. Comment prendre en compte, d'un point de vue économique, le long terme et notamment les futurs dommages environnementaux ? Répondre à cette question est crucial pour évaluer et développer les politiques et stratégies à mettre en oeuvre et influencer les processus de négociation des accords multilatéraux dans le domaine de l'environnement. Thomas Sterner apporte un élément nouveau dans le débat bien connu sur le rôle du taux d'actualisation, en montrant pourquoi il est essentiel de tenir compte aussi de la valeur future des biens et services environnementaux, qui s'accroît avec leur raréfaction.

Résumé

Environmentalists are often upset at the effect of discounting costs of future environmental damage, e.g. due to climate change. An often overlooked message is that we should discount costs but also take into account the increase in the relative price of the ecosystem service endangered. The effect of discounting would thus be counteracted, and if the rate of price rise of the item was fast enough it might even be reversed. The scarcity that leads to rising relative prices for the environmental good will also have direct effects on the discount rate itself. The magnitude of these effects depends on properties of the economy's technology and on social preferences. We develop a simple model of the economy that illustrates how changes in crucial technology and preference parameters may affect both the discount rate and the rate of change of values of environmental goods. The combined effect of discounting and the change of values of environmental goods is more likely to be low, or even negative, the lower is the growth rate of environmental quality (or the larger its decline rate) and the lower is the elasticity of substitution between environmental quality and produced goods.

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Article de T. Sterner

Past Sessions
Changement climatique, eau et commerce, Paris, 08th of December
Energy Security and Climate Change, Paris, 18th of November
Outlook for EU ETS post 2012, Paris, 15th of April
Democracy and Energy Regulation, Paris, 26th of September
Discounting and relative prices in assessing future environmental damages
Chinese power whispers, 17th of December
Crise et précaution, Paris, 19th of March
Nature and the marketplace, Paris, 01st of February
How valuable are the tropical forests?, Paris, 05th of December
CoP6 : le compromis manqué, Paris, 24th of April
Tests biologiques et assurances, Paris, 21st of December
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