Presentation of the Project

Recent progress in science and in climate modelling provides a wealth of information that remains largely underexploited today, particularly in terms of its relevance for industrial activities. As part of the “INVULNERABLe” (INdustrial VULNERA BiLity) programme, IDDRI and its scientific and industrial partners have been pursuing an innovative methodology since 2006 in order to translate the challenges of global industrial vulnerability in terms that the climate models can help to clarify.

INVULNERABLe approaches the vulnerability of industrial operations in a broad sense, from four main angles:

  • Are the statistics used in the design of installations / infrastructure robust in a context of climate change?
  • What are the prospects for change in the factors determining the demand for goods or services?
  • What are the prospects for change that affect the management of the industrial sector?
  • What are the future occurrences of industrial “climate incidents”?

The INVULNERABLe programme both promotes the different IPCC indicators and creates its own indicators linked to changes in temperatures and precipitation by intermediation between the expression of specific industrial challenges and the potentialities of climate models. Beyond the global vision, two areas of special interest are examined in more detail: Europe and northern Asia.

The INVULNERABLe project brings together IDDRI and different participants, including IPSL, Météo-France, CERFACS and ONERC from the scientific community and GDF -Suez, Veolia and EDF from the business sector.

A Better Understanding of Climate Change Risks - Fact Sheets - Initial Results of the Project

INVULNERABLe is a work in process that is expected to move forward rapidly; this presentation therefore constitutes the initial results that can be used to illustrate the potential of this innovative approach.
The fact sheets presented here aim to provide series of indicators relevant to the strategic implementation of industrial activities. The fact sheets deal with the following principal aspects:

  • the preface sheet describes the climate models used in the IPCC report and the results for 2100. It lists the various scenarios that provide different sets of simulation assumptions for future climate, notably regarding greenhouse gas emissions.
  • the technical fact sheet explains how to interpret the other fact sheets, notably the statistics and the description of the likelihood of events.
  • the global fact sheet presents global and general projections of temperature and precipitation as well as the consistency between the models.
  • the uncertainty fact sheet outlines and quantifies uncertainties related to future projections,
    based on model dispersion.
  • the Europe and northern Asia fact sheets provide more detailed information on temperature and  precipitation projections, including the time horizon 2030-2050, along with explanations
    of physical phenomena.

Further fact sheets will be added to this dossier as new indicators are developed.

Download the fact sheets:

  1. Introduction
  2. Using the IPCC Climate models
  3. Uncertainties
  4. Technical
  5. Global / Temperature
  6. Global / Precipitation
  7. Europe - Central Europe / Temperature / 2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999 and 2080-2099 relative to 1961-1990 / Scenario A1B
  8. Europe - Central Europe / Temperature / 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990 and 2080-2099 relative to 1961-1990 / Scenario A2 and others
  9. Europe - Central Europe / Precipitation / 2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999 and 2080-2099 relative to 1961-1990 / Scenario A1B
  10. Europe - Central Europe / Precipitation / 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990 and 2080-2099 relative to 1961-1990 / Scenario A2 and others
  11. Asia - Northern China / Temperature / 2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999
  12. Asia - Northern China / Precipitation / 2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999