What can we expect from the Bali Conference?

The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (April 2007) highlighted the need to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50% in relation to their 1990 levels by 2050 in order to attempt to limit warming to less than 2°C in relation to pre-industrial times.

It is therefore essential for the international community to agree on very ambitious objectives for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the medium and long term. An international agreement should be reached by 2009 to allow countries to ratify it before the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period ends in 2012 and to ensure this deadline does not imply the emergence of a legal void and political demobilization in the fight against climate change.

The Bali Conference, from 1 to 15 December 2007, is the 13^th Conference of the Parties (COP 13) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 3^rd meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (COP/MOP 3).

This Conference will be the culmination of two years of discussions within different international frameworks (Kyoto Protocol Ad Hoc Working Group, United Nations Secretariat Initiative, G8+5, Gleneagles, etc.) on the opportunity, the level of ambition and participation and the negotiation process for a future global climate framework. These two years have also been marked by a considerable increase in awareness of climate issues where public opinion and political decision-makers are concerned, and punctuated with events at the global level, such as the recent awarding of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize to the IPCC and Al Gore.

While high expectations surround this Conference, its aim remains above all to reach an agreement on a "roadmap". Rather than on the content or the nature and level of countries' commitments, for example, attention will focus on the negotiation process, especially subjects it will tackle and its schedule, with a view to reaching an agreement in late 2009.

One of the major challenges of the Bali Conference is thus ensuring that the initiatives taken over the last two years converge towards the multilateral framework provided by the Framework Convention on Climate Change and possibly the Kyoto Protocol. Another challenge involves meeting the highly varied demands and expectations of the countries concerned: on the level of commitment, including financial, of developed countries in the medium and long term and the means of commitment for developing countries, especially the main emerging countries (China, India, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and South Africa).

The key to the success of the Bali Conference lies in the way in which the Parties will organize negotiations in terms of not only the principles and the subjects tackled, but also the definition of an appropriate framework.

Indeed, the Parties must reach an agreement on the principles - especially that of common but differentiated responsibilities - and also on the subjects that will be at the heart of negotiations and will form both the ambition and the purpose of the future global climate framework. The negotiation "package" should particularly include sections relating to reduction efforts, adaptation, deployment and technological cooperation, financing for action and avoided deforestation. It will also be important to define the methodology and an appropriate framework for approaching these subjects in a coherent manner in order to come to an agreement; this will also contribute to the success of Bali. In this matter, the Convention Dialogue emerges as the natural framework for discussing the commitment methods for emerging countries, along with the high-emission developed countries that have not ratified the Kyoto Protocol (the US and Australia). The Kyoto Protocol Ad Hoc Working Group on the other hand will provide a means of discussing the level of commitments for the developed countries that have ratified the Protocol. Finally, the review of the Kyoto Protocol (based on its article 9) may serve as a bridge between these two frameworks, especially thanks to the discussion on the extension of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) as a means for emerging countries to commit to reduction efforts.

But the true success of Bali will be measured above all by the desire expressed and shared by all countries to enter into a new stage of this negotiation. The failure of the Conference on this specific point would run the risk of casting long-term doubt on the multilateral approach to combating climate change on the basis of a global agreement and would leave the door open to bilateral and/or regional initiatives.