An Empirical Assessment of the Risk of Carbon Leakage in Poland
Un article consacré au risque de fuites de carbone en Pologne liées au coût du système communautaire d'échange de quotas d'émission. Cet article analyse les mécanismes existants qui ont pour but d'atténuer les risques de fuites de carbone, et montre que ces risques sont limités.
Points clés [en anglais] :
- ADDRESSING A RESEARCH GAP TO GO BEYOND DOGMA
Poland is a particularly carbon intensive economy. This has created concern that it may be particularly exposed to carbon leakage. However, there is an absence of robust and transparent empirical research on carbon leakage risks in Poland. This study aims at filling this gap by assessing the impact of EU climate policy, in particular the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, on Polish industry.
- COST IMPACTS OF THE EU ETS
With no mitigating measures, a small number of Polish industrial sectors would face significant carbon costs. However, with free allocation, banked surplus allowances and a carbon price of €30/ton, only one sector would face direct carbon costs in excess of 5% of operating profits. Three sectors face direct carbon costs in the order of 1-3% of operating profits; three face no direct carbon costs. With direct compensation for indirect carbon costs (electricity price increases), the two most affected sectors would face indirect costs of 3.5 to 5.5% of gross value added with a carbon price of €30/ ton. The vast majority of Poland’s trade in energy intensive sectors occurs within the EU. It is important to maintain a harmonized climate policy to avoid internal market distortions.
- UNLOCKING POLISH SUPPORT TO FUTURE CLIMATE POLICY DEVELOPMENTS
There is thus a negligible risk of carbon leakage in Poland under current policy. The mitigating measures in the EU Directive remove the vast majority of direct and indirect carbon costs for Polish industry. EU climate policy can be made more stringent without inducing risks of significant carbon leakage. The current benchmarking system appears to be reasonably effective at not structurally disadvantaging less carbon efficient Member States like Poland. And it is vital to maintaining a harmonized climate policy. Finding a harmonized way to address indirect carbon costs may unlock Polish support for future policy.