2009: Towards a Green New Deal?

The year 2008 began with the new oil shock, agricultural and food price crises and the financial crisis marked by the subprime disaster. It closed with a major international financial and economic crisis, which threatens to extend into 2009 and beyond. In this uncertain environment, one certainty is emerging: these crises should be interpreted as just some of the symptoms of an unsustainable development model.

Although some positive developments have taken place since the Bali conference in December 2007 and the resumption of serious climate negotiations, the results of the Poznan conference held last December confirm that change will be laborious and that there is still a hard road ahead before reaching a significant agreement in December 2009 in Copenhagen.
The initial findings of the global report on the economics of ecosystems and biodiversity, led by Pavan Sukhdev and presented in 2008, echo the Stern Review in stressing the costs of inaction, and confirm the urgent need to act now to protect biodiversity. However, it will take more than this to trigger the necessary action.

Faced with the gravity of environmental issues, the responses seem both overly slow and disproportionate, even if positive developments are clearly emerging. Will we have enough time? This race against the clock that has already begun is coming up against the scale of the economic crisis that is unfurling on a global scale. Faced with this crisis, recovery policies are mobilising all available resources. If we want the massive investment movement orchestrated by governments in an attempt to curb the slump to redirect economic growth towards sustainable development, then we must act now, “all at once”, as later there will be no more room for manoeuvre, at least for the next five years. The policies implemented must therefore urgently establish a green new deal, and not only in words. But this is not a foregone conclusion. A very short-term response is understandable and tempting, but could seriously jeopardise the chances of success. The reckless revival of the automobile and real estate sectors, more motorways than public infrastructure and transport, and we lose another 15 or 20 years. We no longer have time. These crises nevertheless constitute a real opportunity. The launch window is there and we must not miss it.

Let us hope that this year will see decisions being made for this green deal, the conclusion of a climate agreement and progress in biodiversity conservation.

The team at IDDRI would like to join me in wishing you all a very happy new year,

Laurence Tubiana

PUBLICATIONS

RST: GLOBAL GOVERNANCE

Sustainable development governance has been chosen as the focus of the new edition of  A Planet for Life, contributing to the debate underway on the current governance system and the changes hoped for.
The 2009 edition in brief:

• an overview of sustainable development events in 2008 and major upcoming events in 2009
• a three-part dossier on governance, supported by maps and interviews:
  •  A system to meet the sustainable development challenge
  • Dynamics of a changing world
  • Sustainably managing complexity
• sustainable development landmarks: a series of maps, tables and timelines providing a new cartography of sustainable development throughout the world
  

This year, Rajendra K. Pachauri, Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC – Nobel Peace Prize in 2007) and Director-General of The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), a research institute based in Delhi, India, has worked with Pierre Jacquet (AFD) and Laurence Tubiana as scientific editor for the publication.
Publication available from 5 February 2009.

Find out more: the page for the publication on www.iddri.org / the web site for the publication

Focus on… Poznan (Poland, 1-12 December 2008)... and afterwards?

The Poznan Conference on climate change was intended to provide a mid-term review of the Bali Action Plan adopted in late 2007, with a view to reaching a general agreement at the Copenhagen Conference in December 2009 on the post-2012 global climate governance system.
Poznan concluded with some definite progress in certain areas, including tropical deforestation, but also with a clear disagreement concerning the extension of the compulsory levy on the Kyoto Protocol flexibility mechanisms in order to increase funding for climate change adaptation in developing countries. Despite legitimate reasons for postponing funding issues until the general negotiations in late 2009, this disagreement nevertheless threatens to increase North/South wariness, and does not bode well for the coming months.

Beyond the points of agreement and disagreement, the Poznan Conference was above all the opportunity to appraise the different ideas and proposals and to clarify working methods for 2009.
As regards the renewal of quantified emissions reduction commitments for industrialised countries, the ad-hoc working group has continued its examination of the scope and distribution of efforts. This appraisal has included a number of methodological questions, such as the duration of commitment periods, the way quantified targets are expressed, the factors underpinning national reduction potential, the improvement of flexibility mechanisms, the way forests are addresses and the extension of the sources to be taken into account.

Concerning long term action under the Convention, the ad-hoc working group gave its chair, Michael Zammit Cutajar, his mandate to prepare the negotiation texts covering the points of the Bali Action Plan and the proposals made by the Parties.

But the positions of the Obama Administration are still lacking, meaning all the elements of the final agreement cannot yet be pulled together. It is to be hoped that between the official nominations in January and the next session of the climate change talks in late March, the United States will have established its positions in order to become effectively involved.

Contact: Cyril Loisel (cyril.loisel@iddri.org)

After Poznan: Publications

* An Analysis of Adaptation Negotiations in Poznan, by Benjamin Garnaud
Hastily presented as one of the major accomplishment s of the Poznan Conference, discussions on adaptation actually need careful analysis. With respect to the historical treatment of adaptation, which has been quite light before COP 13 in Bali (2007), the vogue for adaptation may be good news. However, all the difficulty now lies in translating the semantic success and political momentum into operational outcomes. As the following critical synthesis shows, Poznan can hardly be considered as a major breakthrough in that regard although some significant steps forward have been made.
Download: Synthèses 01/2009

* Climate Change Mitigation in the Forest Sector: What Happened in Poznan?, by Cyril Loisel
Climate change mitigation in the forestry sector was an important topic during the recent Climate Convention conference in Poznan (1-12 December 2008). Forests appeared in various agenda items of the formal negotiations. This note recalls what happened under these agenda items and also on the margins of formal negotiations in relation to climate change mitigation in the forest sector.
Download: Synthèses 10/2008

* Quick Overview of the General State of Play of UNFCCC Negotiations after Poznan, by Emmanuel Guérin
The cornerstone of Poznan was to find an agreement on the 2009 work programme, especially on two issues: the mandate given to the incoming AWG-LCA Chair, Mr. Michael Zammit Cutajar (Malta), to write his two first negotiating texts, and the possibility to organise an additional session. Agreement on these two issues was found quite easily during informal consultations. In fact, one might even argue that agreement on these issues was found too quickly, leaving Ministers with nothing to negotiate, except for two very tricky issues: the share of proceeds and the Adaptation Fund. Nevertheless this agreement, especially on the two first negotiating texts, successfully paves the way for the entrance of the Parties into full negotiating mode in 2009.
In this document, Emmanuel Guérin proposes an overview of these main issues.
Download: Synthèse 09/2008