The Durban outcomes: where is global climate policy headed?

The UN conference on climate change took place in Durban, South Africa, from 28 November to 9 December 2011, in the face of a jittery global economy. The accords agreed, after two days of overtime, can form the basis of long-term ambitious cooperation and could allow increased ambition in the short-term, where possible.

Yet, Durban achieved little in terms of emissions reduction. Even if all countries fulfil their international emissions reduction pledges, it will be impossible to limit global warming to 2 degrees. However, parties have entered into a process to increase the transparency of these objectives and increase their ambition. However, the path dependency of infrastructure and historic choices reduce the capacity to increase the level of ambition in the short term (by 2020), and countries therefore need to begin preparing the next round of targets for 2030 and beyond, which should then be anchored in the global accord to be adopted by 2015.

Countries finally reached a political compromise on the future of the Kyoto Protocol. A small group, including the EU, agreed to participate in a second commitment period of Kyoto, whose legal status is still to be defined. In return, emerging countries agreed to a roadmap towards a “protocol, legal instrument or agreed outcome with legal force” to be adopted by 2015, entering into force by 2020. A sense of political consensus has emerged that we are moving towards a common, legally binding framework, and it takes us well beyond the ambition of the current process launched in Bali in 2007.

Thus, Durban initiated a progressive redefinition of the concept of “common but differentiated responsibilities” in the fight against climate change. It achieved an enlargement of responsibilities, still unclear in detail, but which seems decisive: even though equity will continue to be contentious, the process will lead towards a common legal framework. Reconciling this globalization of responsibility with development imperatives for developing and emerging countries will be a key task for the current decade. Financial cooperation and technology improvements will be vital.

Last, Durban will be remembered for the important geopolitical shift in climate change policy which took place during the negotiations and which broke apart traditional developed-developing country dichotomies. In contrast with India, China and Brazil especially showed their willingness to contribute to the success of the negotiations. Likewise, the countries most vulnerable to climate change (the African countries, the small island states, and the least developed countries) formed an effective alliance with the EU and contributed to the success of the negotiations.

>> Read IDDRI’s policy brief: "Durban climate talks: A small tectonic shift"

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On the subject of energy saving and changing our individual and collective behaviour, Michel Colombier (IDDRI's scientific director) appears in a documentary entitled "Doucement les watts!" aired on Monday 23 January on the French channel France 5. [Find out more]

EVENTS

"The impacts of energy policies on economic growth and employment", a session of the Seminar on Sustainable Development and Environmental Economics (SDDEE), led by Gaël Callonnec.
Tuesday 24 January, at Reid Hall (Paris)
[NOTE: this session will start at 1:00 PM]

When we consider the impacts of environmental and energy policies, especially on variables as essential as employment and greenhouse gas emissions, we can say just about anything if we are not working with an adequate model. Gaël Callonnec will show what it is in fact possible to do with such a model (the 3ME model, whose results are significant), as well as the limitations that must be recognised. More specifically, he will present three different scenarios: a "Factor 4" scenario for 2050; a "carbon tax" scenario; and a "nuclear phase-out" scenario. [Find out more]

"What is at stake in the negotiations on the future international climate regime?", a workshop jointly organised by IDDRI, CERIC (Centre d'études et de recherches internationales et communautaires) and the University of Geneva.
Thursday 26 January – Friday 27 January, Paris

During this workshop, the following points will be addressed: the legal structure of the new climate agreement; the scope of the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities in climate negotiations; sectoral approaches (REDD); monitoring implementation and compliance in the new regime; evolution or adaptation of "compliance"?; the constraints (and flexibility) of WTO law in the design of a new climate regime; and the international climate regime after Durban and in the run up to RIO+20. [Find out more]

"The pathway to an environmental contract”, 36^th congress of France Nature Environnement, co-organised by IDDRI.
Saturday 28 January, à Montreuil-sous-Bois

The successive crises we are enduring show that the system in which we live is on its last legs. But we can amplify the ecological transition of the economy. We can guide agriculture towards the respect of the land. We can opt for energy saving and nuclear phase-out. We can draw upon natural resources without wasting them. We are faced with a threefold challenge — ecological, economic and democratic. We must meet this challenge. In this year of presidential and legislative elections in France, our movement, with over 3,000 associations, invites all those concerned, whether citizens or policy-makers, to step onto the pathway to an "environmental contract".[Find out more]

"Global environmental governance", a workshop with international experts organised by IDDRI.
Monday 30 January, Paris

In the perspective of preparing the United Conference on Sustainable Developement ("Rio+20"), which is to be held Rio de Janeiro in June 2012, IDDRI organises a workshop with international experts. The workshop's morning sessions will deal with global environmental governance, while the afternoon session will examine sustainable development governance. [Find out more]

"Rio+20 - Sustainable developement challenged by globalisation", a public conference organised by IDDRI.
Monday 30 January, Paris

In the perspective of preparing the United Conference on Sustainable Developement ("Rio+20"), which is to be held Rio de Janeiro in June 2012, IDDRI organises a conference with Brice Lalonde (UN Executive Coordinator for the RIO+20 Conference), Julia Marton-Lefevre (Director General of IUCN), Luiz Alberto Figueiredo Machado (Ambassador for climate negotiations), Pavan Sukhdev (Founder-CEO of GIST Advisory, former Special Adviser and Head of UNEP’s Green Economy Initiative and Study Leader for "The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity" report), Ghassan Salamé (Dean of the Paris School of International Affairs at Sciences Po) and Laurence Tubiana (Director of IDDRI and of the Sustainable Development Centre at Sciences Po). The global governance that appeared to be emerging in Rio seems to be unattainable, as it comes up against a return of sovereignty and a redefinition of democratic fora at different levels, among other things. Rio 2012 is the opportunity to redefine an agenda for the coming years that both reflects today’s reality and also contains a certain number of objectives that, since Rio, have remained valid. [Find out more]

"Stepping-up the role of the ETS in EU energy sector decarbonisation", a workshop jointly organised by Bruegel and IDDRI.
Wednesday 8 February, Brussels

The 2008 Climate and Energy Package took important steps towards a low-carbon economy in Europe. Since then, the policy focus has broadened to the long-term 2050 perspective, in which it is clear that Europe must achieve a fundamental transformation of its energy system. Current policy instruments therefore need to place Europe on a feasible long-term pathway. In this event we will discuss the role of the policy mix in the long-term. [Find out more]

"Energy: Saving for Sharing", a round table organised and led by IDDRI, as part of the 5^th edition of the Produrable fair.
Thursday 29 March, à Paris

Between climate change, energy security issues in Europe and the Fukushima disaster in Japan, energy issues are at the heart of debates on the reorientation of our economic model to meet both social and environmental challenges. It is necessary to invest in the transformation of our economies to prepare the next industrial revolution, which is essential if we are to end our reliance on coal and build a resource-efficient growth model. In this context, energy efficiency becomes a necessity for States, and implies a collective challenge to foster access to energy for all, a renewal of the role of public actors and policy-makers, and the adoption of new economic models by the private sector. [Find out more]

VIDEOS

"Migration and Global Environmental Change - The Foresight Project, a British Initiative", a session of the Seminar on Sustainable Development and Environmental Economics (SDDEE), led by Andrew Geddes et Marthe Achtnich.
Mardi 13 décembre

A possible impact of environmental change and population growth is an increase in global human migration as people move to cope with a deteriorating environment. How can we best understand global migration arising from environmental change to help those who move, those in host areas, and those who stay behind, and what are the policy implications? The project on Global Environmental Migration, led by Foresight, aims to explore that question. Professor Andrew Geddes, member of the lead expert group, and Marthe Achtnich, will present the final report, and the main conclusions of the project. [See the video of the conférence]