Presentation
This Policy Brief argues that the transition away from fossil fuels needs to be unpacked into different streams, including with a renewed focus on the economic transition of oil and gas producers, through a dialogue engaging the economic actors that have the capacity to shape global energy markets, major oil producers, major consumer countries that are aiming to decarbonize their economies, and smaller economies that are dependent on oil imports and will be deeply impacted by price disruptions. COP30 provides an opportunity to highlight this gap and foster greater coordination between climate and economic policies in this transition.
Key Messages
- In 2023, in Dubai, countries agreed on the goal to “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner”. However, the follow-up of this call in the UNFCCC has proved difficult, as illustrated in the discussions under the Mitigation Work Programme and the United Arab Emirates Dialogue, most recently in Bonn and a limited uptake in NDCs. Growing geopolitical tensions and conflicts, coupled with the weakening of multilateral governance, have reduced countries’ willingness to cooperate on the energy transition, redirecting attention toward energy security.
- Despite the emergence of initiatives and platforms focused on the production side, there remains a gap in international governance for consumers and producers to coordinate to chart an orderly transition. COP30 provides an opportunity to highlight this gap and encourage the establishment of new ways to support countries on the transition away from fossil fuel.
- Understanding each type of fossil fuel, how they are used in country contexts and within sectoral systems, and the type of transitions that need to happen is key to the implementation of the transition away from fossil fuel. This should lead to a renewed focus on the economic transition, engaging economic actors that have the capacity to shape global energy markets, major oil producers, but major consumer countries that are aiming to decarbonize their economies, and smaller economies that are dependent on oil imports and will be deeply impacted by disruptions to global energy markets.
- Under the leadership of Brazil, there is an opportunity to establish a continuous dialogue to coordinate on the transition of supply and demand, avoiding supply disruptions and stranded assets. The objective is to exchange views on respective oil trajectories and economic planning and to ensure effective progress on the economic transition, aligned with science-based climate pathways. Long-term low emission development strategies are also a key tool to be updated to address the economic transition from fossil fuels and achieve global and country-specific climate neutrality goals.
