Presentation
This Study, based on discussions with professionals between 2022 and 2024, presents a retrospective analysis and a business as usual (BAU) scenario up to 2035 for three meat sectors in France (poultry, pork and beef). The analysis simultaneously considers: (i) the relationships within and between these three value chains; (ii) the domestic, European, and global scales; and (iii) the opportunities and lock-ins resulting from historical transformations in the three sectors.
Key Messages
- Between 1960 and 2024, meat has become an increasingly standardized product, traded on increasingly open markets, making price competitiveness a key factor of the supply-demand equilibrium.
- The three sectors studied experienced continuous growth until the 1990s, supplying increasing domestic and global demand. This trend has been underpinned by clear choices: sustaining family and diversified farms; maintaining farmers’ autonomy and limiting vertical integration, while supporting cooperatives.
- It has been accompanied by:
• significant territorial concentration which, while economically efficient, has had major environmental impacts;
• an increased chicken consumption at the expense of beef; and
• sectoral industrialization.
- Since 2000, French actors have experienced difficulties in the export and domestic markets (which have differed from one sector to another). Without new measures, and based on the assumption that demand remains similar, a BAU scenario to 2035 would lead to:
• an increased imbalance between supply and demand on the domestic market for all sectors, with the overall coverage rate falling from 98% in 2020 to 87% in 2035;
• a growing geographic split in production areas, favouring the western regions of France;
• a decline in small and medium-sized farms and industrial sites: a 34% decrease in the number of livestock farms and a 31% decline in associated jobs, along with a 20% reduction in abattoirs and meat processing facilities and a 14% decrease in agro-industrial jobs;
• environmental impacts: the reduction in national greenhouse gas emissions (of approximately 15%) would be compensated by imported emissions; nitrogen surpluses would remain high in western regions despite efficiency gains; grassland area would decline by 18% due to the fall in extensive ruminant production, which would negatively impact biodiversity and landscapes, and lead to the release of CO2 and an increase in water pollution.
- While the debate on the future of livestock farming should continue, discussions need to better integrate issues concerning demand and the full range of challenges facing the sector. This requires an open and transparent modelling approach, such as the one applied in this Study, which combines socio-economic and agri-environmental aspects, and examines the links between farms, the agri-food industry and demand.
