Ukraine's Accession to the EU: Implications for the European Agricultural Sector

Abstract

Ukraine's possible accession to the European Union (EU) is causing apprehension among European farmers, who fear competition from Ukrainian production. The country's agriculture is highly competitive due to the size of its territory, its fertile land, and its low production costs. Its primary exports to Europe are raw products with low added value, mainly cereals and oilseeds used as feed. While Ukraine's accession does represent a challenge for EU arable producers (and to a lesser extent poultry), sectors and industries, it does not break from the current situation. It rather strengthens ongoing trends that have been in place since the mid-2010s, namely an increase in trade, particularly in agri-food products, following the signing of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement in 2014. Furthermore, the future of relations between the two regions and its implication for their respective agricultural sectors are not yet defined. They will be shaped by a set of regulations – and therefore political choices – currently being drawn up: the Treaty of Accession, the CAP and Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) reforms. They will also depend on the outcome of the war and its consequences for the Ukrainian agricultural sector, as well as the direction chosen for this sector as part of the country's reconstruction process.