Presentation
This Study examines four contrasting scenarios for the three main French meat production sectors (beef, pork and poultry) by 2035. It uses modelling tools that integrate the biophysical impacts of production systems as well as the structural evolution of farms and agri-food industries based on technical and economic indicators, in order to assess the strengths and weaknesses of each scenario.
Read the Methodological Annex (in French)
Key Messages
- None of the scenarios (Business-as-usual, Efficiency First, Feed no Food, Rural Renaissance) fully addresses all of the issues raised in the public debate on livestock farming in France.
- Three distinct demand trends were considered (BAU, TRAMe and TYFA to 2035), each of which was associated with all scenarios according to a matrix logic. With the BAU demand, the meat sector as a whole cannot follow a trajectory compatible with the National Low-Carbon Strategy 3 (SNBC 3). On the other hand, TYFA 2035 demand systematically allows for a compatible trajectory, while TRAMe demand falls between the two. This points to the need to consider both supply and demand side measures to support the transition of the sector.
- The Study highlights the fact that any vision for the future of French livestock farming involves compromises, which must be made explicit in the context of a calm and informed public debate.
- Implementing all scenarios, except the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario, would require profound changes to either the political framework (Feed No Food and Rural Renaissance) or the political instruments supporting livestock farming (Efficiency First, Feed No Food and Rural Renaissance), or an economic context favourable to investment (Efficiency First and Rural Renaissance), or a combination of the three.
