Addressing context-specific energy modelling risks and dynamics in low- and middle-income countries

Abstract

Energy modelling tools guide energy transition planning, yet critical questions persist regarding their application in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). These countries face the complex challenge of meeting growing energy needs in ways that are affordable, sustainable and resilient, while also advancing broader, long-term development goals in uncertain financial, geopolitical and climatic contexts. Here we highlight that innovation in modelling practice is required to adequately analyse current planning challenges and avoid the risks of misaligned policy advice. Framed through three features of modelling practice—choice of paradigm, modelling process and pluralism of expertise—we identify priority areas for methodological advancement. This means innovation across energy planning related to context-specificity, system dynamics and uncertainties, as well as integration with connected systems. To mainstream innovation, we propose a focus on ensuring data and modelling availability, prioritizing support for modelling in low-planning-capacity contexts, and expanding networks of practice that support LMIC modelling.