Presentation
Is the social contract as it currently stands even realistic? Can governments ensure ever growing consumption possibilities in the context of a finite planet? Can current forms of democracy meet people’s expectations in terms of representativeness? This report proposes a comprehensive dashboard to portray the state of the current social contract across Europe based on 49 indicators, focusing on the government’s ‘side of the bargain’. Where is the contract being fulfilled? Where is it being neglected? Are we heading in the right direction or in reverse? In doing so we offer the first empirical assessment of the social contract in Europe, informed by citizens, and covering outcomes as well as procedural factors.
Citation
Saamah Abdallah, Eric Barbera Mas, Mathieu Saujot (2026). Unfulfilled promises? The state of the social contract in the 21st century. Hot or Cool & IDDRI.
Headline results
Our analysis reveals important differences between the four pacts of the social contract:
- A Democratic Pact on standby. While a large majority of Europeans consider that elections are free and fair and that the law applies equally to everyone, only a minority feel represented by the political sphere, feel they have a political voice, and trust national institutions. Three distinct groups emerge: the Nordic countries are well above the rest, the Western countries are in the middle, and the Southern and post-Communist countries are together at the bottom. The first two groups have seen no improvement, while the third has made slight progress.
- A Security Pact that differs from that reflected in political debates. Few Europeans report feeling unsafe in their communities. On the contrary, many believe that foods containing chemicals are unhealthy for their health and the environment. The gaps between the four groups are small, with a slight upward trend for each of them.
- Work-Welfare Pact: a pillar that is still standing but could become fragile. For the work-welfare pact, there is a convergence between the four groups and similar dynamics: an increase during the first two-thirds of the period, followed by a decline since 2021. Several indicators explain this decline, which coincides with the post-COVID period: autonomy at work, proportion of working poor, recognition, and satisfaction of health needs. At the same time, there have been few notable improvements in the other indicators of this pact.
- Consumption Pact: a driving force behind progress in the social contract... which is slowing down. There is convergence in the overall score between the four groups of countries, with the Southern and Post-Communist groups catching up. As of 2020, Western Europe has the highest average score on this pact. Many countries, including wealthier ones, struggle to keep personal debt down despite relatively high incomes.
