A new wave of international cooperation

The world is trapped in a permanent state of crisis. Yet beneath this turbulence, another story is unfolding. Across regions, countries are adapting not only to immediate crises but also to deeper structural shifts in geopolitics, demographics and the long-term imperative of achieving development and prosperity within planetary boundaries. Clean energy systems are being deployed at unprecedented scale, access to clean cooking is expanding across Africa, electric vehicle sales continue to surge, especially in Asia, and global value chains are being reshaped by industrial and strategic priorities. Green investment has become a central pillar of economic policy.

This transformation is increasingly visible in international diplomacy. From discussions in Davos on building “coalitions that work” to growing BRICS influence on development finance and governance debates, countries are seeking new ways to cooperate despite geopolitical tensions. Africa-France Forward, EU-India negotiations, and expanded China-Brazil cooperation all point to a similar trend: cooperation is becoming more pragmatic, centred on investment, industrial development and implementation rather than broad political declarations.

Climate diplomacy increasingly reflects this dynamic. The UNFCCC process is often portrayed as being in crisis, mirroring broader tensions in the international system. Yet climate cooperation remains very much in motion—more dispersed, less visible and increasingly focused on implementation. Energy security concerns have accelerated clean energy deployment in many countries. The IMO Net Zero Framework regained broad support in the latest negotiation round amidst uncertainties from the deep transport crisis generated by the closing of the Ormuz straight. Brazil-EU-China cooperation around carbon market integrity, resilient infrastructure and green industrial development continues to expand. More than 100 Finance Ministries are now integrating climate risks and resilience into core economic planning.

How does Bonn fit in this picture?

Three implementation agendas to watch

Energy transitions

Energy transitions remain the centrepiece of climate diplomacy and the war in Iran both generates uncertainties and demonstrates once again the vulnerabilities linked to dependence on fossil fuels. Discussions at Petersberg (21-22 April) and Copenhagen (20-21 May) highlighted how energy security, competitiveness and climate action are becoming increasingly intertwined. Electrification, grid development, clean energy deployment and methane reduction are increasingly framed not only as climate priorities but as economic and strategic imperatives.

Building on COP30 and the Santa Marta conference on transitions away from fossil fuels, Bonn will see consultations on the COP30 Presidency's Global Roadmap on Transition Away from Fossil Fuels. The objective is not to negotiate a single model for transition, but to identify common lessons, enabling conditions and forms of cooperation that can accelerate equitable transitions while recognising national circumstances. Informal conversations will question how this Roadmap is to be anchored in the COP process.

The process faces political sensitivities, particularly around fossil fuel phase-out language. As a result, areas where consensus is easier—such as renewables, electrification, grids and energy efficiency—may become important entry points for COP31 agreements. The emerging IEA-COP31 partnership is expected to support this agenda and help connect technical expertise with political processes. Progress on reducing dependence on fossil fuels is likely to rely primarily on the development of national transition roadmaps—including electrification plans, diversifications plans, or more generally long-term development strategies (LT-LEDS)—which can help identify practical cooperation and coordination needs across countries.  

Trade and climate

Trade illustrates particularly well the dual nature of the current moment: rising geopolitical tensions alongside growing opportunities for cooperation. Climate policy is increasingly intertwined with industrial strategies, investment decisions and the restructuring of global value chains. As countries pursue green industrial policies and climate-related trade measures, questions of competitiveness, market access and development opportunities have become central to climate diplomacy.

COP30 marked an important shift in how the UNFCCC approaches these issues. Rather than focusing primarily on disputes around unilateral measures, Parties increasingly recognised that trade can either accelerate or hinder implementation of climate goals. This led to the creation of the first-ever Trade-Climate Dialogue under the UNFCCC.

The dialogue, which will convene in Bonn the World Trade Organization, UNCTAD and the International Trade Centre alongside Parties, represents a significant evolution of the climate regime. The focus is expected to move towards practical questions: where trade and climate policies reinforce each other, where barriers exist, and how cooperation can help countries capture the economic benefits of the transition. It reflects a broader shift in climate diplomacy—from negotiating commitments towards identifying and addressing implementation barriers. Nonetheless, the effectiveness of these efforts is closely tied to the strength and credibility of the international trade governance regime.

Resilient infrastructure

A third emerging priority is resilient infrastructure. While adaptation has long been part of climate negotiations, resilient infrastructure is increasingly being recognized as an economic and strategic issue that extends far beyond the climate community. It is attracting growing attention from development institutions, Finance Ministers, BRICS countries, the G7—see the recent Communiqué by G7 Ministers of Finance & Central Banks Governors on financial instability in the face of natural disasters—and insurers.

Momentum is building rapidly. Ahead of the G7, experts have highlighted the growing insurance protection gap and the urgent need to improve insurability (T7 Solution Paper) in a world of escalating climate risks, as well as the role insurers can play in supporting investment in resilient infrastructure. At the same time, several efforts are unfolding, for example, the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure which is preparing its Strategy 2040.

The COP31 Presidency has identified resilient infrastructure as a priority area for action. The London Climate Action Week (20-28 June) is also expected to generate momentum by bringing together public and private actors around financing and implementation solutions. Like trade, this agenda illustrates how climate action increasingly intersects with broader economic concerns rather than remaining confined to environmental policy.

Beyond the multilateral, plurilateral efforts will use Bonn to identify new members and angles for cooperation, for example in the dynamic sectors of green steel or the emerging freight transport initiatives.

Technical processes under negotiations

Beyond these emerging agendas, Bonn remains a critical negotiating session with a long list of processes, many of them integral to the implementation of the Paris Climate Agreement and the Climate Convention. However, its role is increasingly to translate political signals into mechanisms that can support implementation.

One important discussion will focus on operationalizing the Global Implementation Accelerator launched at COP30. Negotiators will also begin shaping the new Just Transition Mechanism and discuss how it can support implementation while responding to different national circumstances.

Bonn will also host the first UAE Dialogue on implementing the outcomes of the Global Stocktake. The objective is to identify barriers, enabling conditions and opportunities for cooperation across mitigation, adaptation and means of implementation. These discussions may also provide an early indication of how Parties envision the second Global Stocktake and its role in accelerating action (IDDRI, Wuppertal, 2026). 

Adaptation remains another important area. Following agreement on the Belém indicators at COP30, discussions will focus on operationalisation through the Belém-Addis vision, a process aimed at testing and aligning the indicators. This could become a key opportunity to move adaptation from methodological debates towards practical learning and implementation.

Finally, Bonn will contribute to operationalizing the renewed Global Climate Action Agenda (GCAA). While Presidency priorities such as circular economy and waste management will receive attention, the GCAA has established a comprehensive framework across different sectors and types of transformations required to meet Paris Agreement goals, codified in 6 axes and further developed in concrete plans—the so-called Plan to Accelerate Solutions (PAS). Bonn will provide the opportunity to take stock of these initiatives, enhancing accountability of the Action Agenda.

A stepping stone towards COP31

Bonn will not resolve the major political tensions facing climate diplomacy. Nor should success be measured solely by negotiation outcomes. Its significance lies in revealing where climate cooperation is evolving in a fragmented world.

The climate regime is increasingly being asked to perform a new function: not only to negotiate collective ambition, but also to help identify barriers, mobilize partnerships and accelerate implementation across an increasingly complex landscape of actors and initiatives, and to make sure no one is left behind.

In that sense, Bonn is less about managing crises than about navigating transformation and ensuring it remains aligned with a 1.5°C pathway and sustainable development objectives. It is one of the last major stops before COP31 and an important test of whether the vision of an implementation-focused "COP of the Future" - objective set by the Turkish-Australian Presidencies- can begin to take shape.

The real question is no longer whether climate cooperation exists. It is whether the international system can recognize, connect and scale the many forms of cooperation that are already emerging.