Citation
Winkler, H., Marquard, A., Torres Gunfaus, M., van Rossum, H., Pérez Català, A., Muttitt, G., Mogess, Y.K., Klinsky, S., Dubash, N.K., Waisman, H. and Colombier, M. (2026). ‘Equitable Transitions Away from Fossil Fuels (ETAFF).’ PRISM Working Paper 2026-6. Cape Town: Policy Research in International Services and Manufacturing, University of Cape Town.
Abstract
Fossil fuels must be phased out without further delay given the climate crisis, yet countries face very different circumstances in implementing equitable transitions away from fossil fuels (ETAFFs). This working paper examines how ETAFFs can be implemented in different national contexts and supported through international cooperation. It analyses the meaning and implications of the GST decision on transitioning away from fossil fuels in a just, orderly and equitable manner, reviews the relevant literature, and examines quantitative patterns of fossil fuel production, consumption and trade. The paper identifies three types of ETAFFs: energy, energy-economy and economic transitions, and analyses how they would be implemented in three types of countries: oil and gas exporters, oil and gas importers, and coal users. It analyses starting points, political economy dynamics, drivers of change, and implementation challenges across these country types. Drawing on mixed methods, the paper examines national action, international cooperation, and the connections between them. It explores approaches to international forums, institutions, coalitions and financing arrangements relevant to ETAFFs, and analyses different approaches to cooperation among countries facing similar transition challenges. The paper concludes by considering how national, plurilateral and multilateral discussions on ETAFFs can be sequenced better, and how existing processes under the Paris Agreement can support implementation of ETAFFs.
