Net-zero compatible development pathways in Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa: lessons for short-term actions

Abstract

The global carbon neutrality objective is a key upshot of the Paris Agreement climate goals. Its translation to the national level has been central to climate policy since then and, notably, country commitments have flourished over the years. However, there is still limited scientifically robust and policy-relevant evidence on national pathways to net-zero that captures the specifics of national circumstances. Such insights would be critical to ensure that carbon neutrality pledges are credible and actionable. This paper presents the methodological approach developed under the Deep Decarbonization Pathways (DDP) initiative to support the elaboration by in-country experts of national scenarios exploring long-term transformations consistent with carbon neutrality, and to enable a constructive dialogue on carbon neutrality with a large set of decisionmakers. We present carbon neutrality scenario results for 7 large emerging economies developed with this method. They display how each country can define its own pathway to net-zero, considering its national circumstances and in a way that preserves key domestic socio-economic priorities. They display some country-specific patterns but also highlight key common transformations for carbon neutrality, including moderation of final energy uses, a steady decrease in the use of fossil fuels for all purposes and substitution of low GHG energy forms, and a steady increase in the absorption capacities in diverse land uses. To trigger these net-zero transformations, national public decision makers should evolve national development policy packages according to the three following policy insights.