The Impact of Agroecological Transition on the Meat Industry: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach Applied to the French Livestock Sector

Abstract

Scenarios examining the spread of agroecological transition in Europe concur that reducing livestock numbers and improving the synergies between crop and livestock areas are fundamental to curbing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing farmland biodiversity. This study employs an agent-based model to investigate the influence of a significant agroecological transition in France, which would entail a reduction in production and relocation of livestock to regions outside western France. The objective is to ascertain the impact of such a transition on the competitive dynamics within the meat industry. The large meat processors in western France, which currently dominate the market, would only process a small fraction of the livestock that would be relocated, due to higher transport costs. Their reduced market volume and share would lead to reduced profits for these processors, with some potentially going out of business because of high fixed costs. Driven by economic opportunities, small and medium-sized processors would enter the market and locate in northern, eastern and southern France. In all scenarios, increased production by small labour-intensive firms does not offset the impact of reduced production on job losses.