This Policy Brief proposes a modus operandi for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) framework, in close connection with the development of the Paris Agreement's Global Stocktake (GST), and with a focus on combining policy and scientific expert judgments instead of exclusively relying only on a quantitative indicator basis. Its conclusions can inform both processes scheduled to conclude at COP28: the Glasgow - Sharm-El Sheikh Work Programme on the GGA (GlaSS).and the adaptation component of the GST.

Key Messages

  • Assessing adaptation at the global level is critical to reflect progress towards achieving the Global Goal on Adaptation and thus inform the next UNFCCC Global Stocktake. This is however chal- lenging as classical quantitative indicator-based methods are limited by difficulties in identifying both indicators that are relevant and comparable across countries, and sufficient underlying data.
  • The assessment challenge can be addressed through an alternative method based on expert judgment and informed by a set of key questions paired with a scoring system, whilst allowing for local to national circumstances to be reflected.
  • This method has been successfully applied to the assessment of global coastal adaptation, showing that it is both scientifically robust and technically doable, and has the potential to mini- mise the additional burden to countries, facilitate the aggregation of multi-sourced information on adaptation efforts, and deliver sound results ahead of key policy moments. The next step con- sists of scaling up the analysis to a broader set of key risk areas.
  • In order for this approach to inform the sec- ond Global Stocktake in 2028, COP28 could acknowledge the added-value of the proposed modus operandi and call for both methodological bases to be refined by COP29 (questions, scor- ing system, guidance) and a full deployment by COP32.
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