Pan, X., Wang, L., Chen, W., Robiou du Pont, Y., Clarke, L., Yang, L., Wang, H., Lu, X., He, J. (2022). Decarbonizing China’s energy system to support the Paris climate goals, Science Bulletin, Volume 67, Issue 14.
It is worth noting that in our 1.5 °C scenarios, following the completion of the NDC requires China’s energy system to achieve carbon neutrality by approximately 2050 rather than by 2060 (compared to the literature, our scenarios suggest stronger end-use electrification in 2050 for staying well below 2 °C and earlier carbon neutrality for staying below 1.5 °C; see Table S2 online). The challenge of achieving carbon neutrality at mid-century implies that during the 14th and 15th “Five-Year Plan” periods, China could pay particular attention to pursuing ambitious near-term mitigation in accordance with national circumstances to pave the way for its carbon–neutral vision and the long-term Paris climate goals. Reaching peak CO2 emissions early could reduce China’s reliance on NETs to meet its carbon budget (Supplementary discussion section 3 online), and might also provide possibilities for China to further reduce cumulative emissions and contribute to achieving the global 1.5 °C goal.