Presentation
This Study first examines the main factors that have shaped food expenditure in France over the decades. It then analyzes the effects of inflation between 2022 and 2024, revealing the consequences of more expensive food, and identifies growing threats to agricultural and food prices, which could lead to a repeat and extension of crises in the future. Finally, it calls for a debate on the modalities of public intervention on demand aimed at limiting the probability and magnitude of future food crises.
Key Messages
- The ‘food pact’ is based on the promise of widespread access to safe, affordable food that meets people's preferences. It is currently under pressure from several phenomena: a) a growing split of food between a high-end segment that prioritizes health and environmental commitments, and an affordable conventional segment with little added value, b) an increase in situations of food poverty and insecurity, and c) a growing pressure on the dedicated budget.
- The first dimension of this pressure refers to the ‘secondary’ status of food. The rise in fixed expenses (e.g. housing) increases pressure on food budgets, while households are neither willing nor able to devote more time to this activity. Thus, in the face of price increases, a return to home cooking or on an increase in willingness to spend more on food is unlikely.
- The second dimension concerns food prices. Studies point to a series of factors (e.g. climate change, health risks, energy prices) that will fuel the upward trend in prices, as well as shocks that are likely to be more frequent and more severe. The factors driving prices downwards are uncertain and probably insufficient to offset these increases: pressure is therefore likely to mount.
- To address this scissor effect on household food budgets and anticipate the consequences of potential social and political crises, a demand-side policy must be developed by a) supporting changes in diet and b) supporting the most vulnerable categories of the population.
