This Policy Brief presents the key results of a study that analyses the implications of an ambitious agroecological transition across Europe, following the TYFA scenario. Published in 2018, what it proposes by 2050 is fully aligned with the objectives that the European Farm to Fork and Biodiversity strategies aim to achieve by 2030, in particular regarding the decrease in pesticides, nitrogen, and antibiotics on the supply side, and the transition towards more plant-based diets on the demand side. Using a world biomass balance model (GlobAgri-AgT), the impact of the TYFA scenario in the EU on world land use, the EU physical trade balance, the provision of calories and global food security is analysed in addition to key policy levers to spur the transition.

Key Messages

  • Because of the reduction in the consumption of animal protein and the relocation of plant protein production, an agroecological EU outperforms today’s system in providing nutrients/calories to the rest of the world, and becomes a net exporter of calories by 12% of what it consumes. Indeed, while today the EU is a major exporter in value terms thanks to high value commodities (ex. spirits, wine, cheese, cigarettes and other high processed commodities) that are not part and parcel of global food security, it is a net importer of calories and proteins by 11% and 26% of what it consumes, respectively.
  • No sustainable agroecological transition can happen in the EU without strong policies that:
    • Support a great dietary transition towards healthier and less calorie-dense diets with less animal and ultra-processed food products;
    • Maintain EU price and non-price competitiveness in the domestic and foreign markets through agronomic research, a better coordination between actors and a market segmentation for EU “ecologically intensive” agricultural commodities;
    • Change current market conditions to improve EU protein autonomy through the reintegration of legumes in rotations.


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